Thoughts on the Coup from Tocoa

Hey all. I'm doing fine, despite all of the news you have been hearing this weekend. Let me fill you in on my take of what's going on in Honduras right now.

Manuel Zelaya was elected the President of Honduras in 2005, from the Liberal Party of Honduras (PLH). Since then he has been seen as an ally of Hugo Chávez and the recently formed ALBA (Bolivarian Alliance for the people of our America).

One interesting part of the Honduran constitution is that it only allows a president to serve one term. I'm also told that there are only three presidential candidates in every race. A short time ago, I began to hear about this political movement called Cuarta Urna. In Spanish, this means fourth ballot box. What I understand is that the political objective of Cuarta Urna is to change the Honduran constitution. Many believe that Cuarta Urna is a political means for Manuel Zelaya to be elected a second time. Furthermore, opponents of Cuarta Urna infer that this movement is ultimately to achieve the indefinite reelection of a president.

Last week, tensions in Honduras rose as Zelaya was planning on executing a national referendum, or encuesta, scheduled for Sunday, June 28, 2009 (today). It was to be a yes/no inquiry to see if the Honduran people were interested in making changes to the constitution. But on Thursday, the head of the Army, Romeo Vásquez, was fired by Zelaya for not logistically supporting the referendum with the army.

I heard Vásquez refused to help because the Supreme Court and the National Congress declared the referendum to be illegal. It would have been illegal, because national referendums cannot be held 180 days before or after an election. As the next presidential election is this year, they said that any referendum would be illegal. The Supreme Court then ordered Zelaya to reinstall Romeo Vásquez.

A father of one of my students, told me Thursday night that he suspected a coup d'état was in the works. He advised me not to go downtown in Tocoa for the next four days, or go near any large groups of people, especially because I am a foreigner (target?).

His words were almost proved correct on Friday morning, as I was told me that a coup d'état almost happened on Thursday night, except that both parties (President vs. Congress & Courts) received a phone call from a mediator. Was it Hillary Clinton?

Friday and Saturday were tense in Tocoa, and around Honduras in general. Zelaya and his supporters mobbed the military airbase and took all of the ballot boxes for the referendum. This way they could distribute the materials for the referendum on Sunday. There was no resistance by the military.

Last night, I went out with some friends for a beer. I sat with three Tocoans, listening to their concerns for the future of their country. There had been an article in the local newspaper, La Prensa, that Nicaraguan soldiers were infiltrating the border in civilian clothes. Even worse, Honduras' neighbors on all sides were mobilizing at the border. It seemed that everyone was expecting the worst as referendum day drew near.

It seemed quiet in Tocoa last night. Even though there are less than 30,000 people living in Tocoa, at least the main drag is bustling around 1 or 2 a.m. Everybody apparently decided to stay home. It probably would have been prudent of me to stay home too, but I guess part of me found going out to be exciting, in a twisted way. Don't confuse my feelings, I want the most peaceful and democratic solution for this country. But I am pursuing a political science degree, after all. It feels like I'm experiencing history. It might be a misplaced fascination with a volatile political scene, but hey, I'm already here, right?

Sunday, June 28, was to be the day of the referendum. I woke up at 8:30 a.m. to the sound of my AC going down. My host brother told me that the military had shut down the electricity in all of Honduras for the day. I used the last 15 minutes of battery to log online and discover that Zelaya had been arrested and expelled from Honduras. This meant that the military went ahead with the coup.

You can read about what happened elsewhere in Honduras, but I'll share what I know about Tocoa. People here were fairly certain that the electricity was deliberately shut down by the military. Maybe they did it to stop the people watch reports on TV before they could issue a report. Around 10 a.m., my host brother saw a small airplane dropping leaflets on Tocoa. I eventually saw one, and it stated that the referendum was illegal, that Cuarta Urna was illegal, and for everyone to stay in their homes. I'll try to get a copy of that leaflet up tomorrow.

The referendum voting places were to be the local schools in Tocoa. The ballot boxes were seized, and the referendum canceled. I didn't go downtown, but some in my host family were running errands. They told me that there was a gathering in the central park of Tocoa, a demonstration probably. Additionally, these demonstrators were surrounded by soldiers, that were guarding the park and town. Local businesses shut down early on Sunday, out of fear of a mass protest.

By noon, the power was back, and not a moment too soon. The Confederations Cup final was about to start! I laid low for most of the day, watched the U.S. national team choke during the second half, eat lunch, and watch Interim President Roberto Micheletti get sworn in by the national congress.

Many Hondurans are struggling with the definition of what happened here today. Was it a coup, or wasn't it? A lot of people in Honduras don't think it was a coup, since they transitioned to a new civilian government so quickly. They saw it more as a replacement of the president. The military ousted Zelaya early this morning, but the National Congress claims they acted under their orders. Micheletti is apparently Zelaya's replacement for the next six months. What more, their from the same party! So this struggle between Zelaya and the other two branches of government extend to his own party and former political allies. It isn't seen as a cut and dry coup from here in Honduras. Many here told me they were afraid that Zelaya wanted to rule indefinitely, and do the same in Honduras as was done in Venezuela.

A lot of Tocoans do not believe Zelaya's accusation that the U.S. embassy has been supporting a coup. Many actually see the U.S. government as a better ally than Chávez, who is perceived as a threat to the stability of Honduras. Hondurans are looking to the U.S. for support, especially as a counterweight to Venezuela. We will see how the international community interacts with this new government.

People in Tocoa want support. They are going to try to make Monday a normal day. Businesses are to be open and school will be in session. People want it to normal here, but are all too aware of the tension, and too unaware of the future. I'm holding class tomorrow, but can't really count on anything.

Let's hope for the best.

UPDATE:
Before I go to sleep for the night, I just read online that a nationwide curfew has been imposed for Sunday and Monday each night spanning from 9PM to 6 AM.